The Lawyer of the Future
by Alan R. Nye, Esq.
Maine Lawyer's Review. Volume 7, Number 12, June 9, 1999
"The Internet will spark more change in business in the next 5 years, than in the last 60 years."
Ray Lane, President, Oracle, Keynote address, Internet & Electronic Commerce Conference, April 28 IDG News Service.1
If the experts are correct, the Internet will change everything about how you practice law.
I'm not talking about in the year 2525 -- or even the year 2025. If current predictions prove correct, radical changes in how you practice law will occur in just the next couple of years. Practicing law 10 years from now will be as different as practicing law was 100 years ago. Why?
It all has to do with the increased power of computers and faster access speeds to the Internet. Moore's Law (named after Gordon Moore, a senior Intel executive) states that computers tend to double their power every 18 months2. This rule of thumb has been accurate since at least the late 1970's. So what does this mean to lawyers?
As the power of computers continues to increase3, the ability of computers to completely alter the way lawyers practice law also evolves at an ever-increasing pace. In the last few years, for example, think of all the changes in the typical law office: computers, fax machines, e-mail, Internet access, desktop word processing, voice dictation software, time and billing programs, case management systems, CD-ROM libraries, database programs, networks and attorney Web sites. Twenty years ago almost none of these things existed.
It used to be unheard of for an attorney to type his or her own documents. A secretary was as essential as a subscription to the Maine Reporter. Today, many lawyers routinely type (or dictate to their computer) their own letters and pleadings. As computers become more powerful, this trend will only increase.
Most modern desktop computers today have a 32 bit CPU (central processing unit). 64 bit computers are right around the corner and 128 bit computing is likely within 5 years. This increased computing power will have a dramatic impact on the legal profession.4
These powerful computers will make your life easier by shouldering much of the burden of routine tasks that used to take an enormous amount of time. Lawyers will soon be able to carry entire electronic libraries around with them in light, easy-to-use portable computers. These devices will be able to find specific information in stored in them that used to take lawyers and paralegals hours to locate.
What the computers don't have available in them directly for information, they'll be able to obtain in moments over the Internet. Today's typical modem operates at a speed of 56 kbps.5 Faster speeds exist at a higher cost. Cable modems, for example, provide download speeds of up to 4 Mbps.6 Other methods of access are so fast that you could download the entire encyclopedia Britannica, together with all of its text and graphics, in under a second.7
So if everyone has computers as fast as lightening and incredibly access speed to the Internet, what problems face attorneys in the near future?
The Bad News
The problem is that the powerful computers that will soon be available to legal professionals will also be available to everyone else. In a presentation to the ABA Techshow in 1998, Richard S. Granat, Esq., discussed the added capabilities that a 64 bit computer would have for lawyers -- and lay persons.
"This new power at the desk-top, combined with almost universal access to the Internet will have a transformative impact on the legal profession -- particularly that sector of the profession that serves individuals and small business -- the bread and butter of solos and general practice firms."8
Mr. Granat warns that the same tools and capabilities that will serve the lawyer in providing a better service to clients will also allow individuals to obtain the same information -- without the assistance of a lawyer. He believes that the legal profession is ripe for restructuring and that all lawyers must establish basic computer competency skills in order to survive.
"Technology is reforming the world and it will transform the delivery of legal services in ways not anticipated by today's legal profession. The technology that is being used to automate law practice is about to escape from the control of lawyers, no longer the lawyer's servant, and become a tool that anyone can use."9
Mr. Granat and other experts believe that a major threat the Internet poses to the legal profession is disintermediation -- which simply means "cutting out the middle man." The Internet has proven to be an excellent tool for bypassing the middleman, specialist or professional that typically is involved in a transaction.10
Those individuals dealing primarily with information -- like lawyers -- are particularly vulnerable to disintermediation. With more powerful computers and ever increasing access speeds to the Internet, many clients will choose to not retain a lawyer and obtain the information themselves from sources such as Nolo Press,11 the 'Lectric Law Library12 or from a legal software vendor such as Parsons Technology. Client might also decide to have their legal work performed by someone working at lower pay, such as a paralegal, junior accountant or other non-lawyer.
The Good News
So what does a lawyer need to do to avoid disintermediation?
Jerry Lawson, Esq., the author of The Complete Internet Handbook for Lawyers, believes that the lawyers can fight back.
"The best way for middlemen (including lawyers) to avoid disintermediation is to concentrate on providing unique high-quality services that cannot be easily replaced by computer-delivered services or human competitors using the Internet."
The Internet is here to stay. It will soon affect every aspect of how you practice law. It is imperative that you look now to find ways to add unique value to your services. Learn to use all aspects of technology in your goal to become an irreplaceable middleman. Your survival depends on it.
1 http://www.pcworld.com/cgi-bin/pcwtoday?ID=10740.
2 A more detailed explanation of Moore's Law can be found in www.whatis.com.
3 Intel recently predicted that Moore's law itself would not only hold true for the next 5 years, but that it would double -- meaning that computers would become twice as powerful every 9 months. See, Technology Trends in the Computer Market, Steele Scharbech Associates L.L.C. at www.ssa-lawtech.com/wp/wp4-2-2.htm.
4 As computers become faster, smaller and cheaper, voice recognition will become standard computer technology. In addition, computers will understand simple voice instructions like "open that complaint in the Smith case that I began yesterday." Computers will also adapt to work habits by remembering, for example, that a user likes the date to be in italics and the "Re:" portion of a letter to be bold type. Id.
5 Kbps stands for kilobits per second (thousands of bits per second) and is a measure of bandwidth (the amount of data that can flow in a given time) on a data transmission medium. Higher bandwidths are more conveniently expressed in megabits per second (Mbps, or millions of bits per second) and in gigabits per second (Gbps, or billions of bits per second). Provided by www.whatis.com.
6 For a good review of various fast Internet connections available today, look in the April 20, 1999 edition of PC Magazine. You can access the article on the Internet at www.zdnet.com/pcmag/stories/reviews/0,6755,2233480,00.html.
7 ATM (asynchronous transfer mode) is a dedicated-connection switching technology that allows rates up to 622 Mbps with a potential rate of 10 Gbps. SONET is an advanced fiber optic media that supports data speeds approaching 20 Gbps per second. Provided by www.whatis.com.
8 See, Re-Training Lawyers for a Digital Age at www.digital-lawyer.com/retrain.html.
9 Id.
10 Amazon.com sells millions of dollars of books, CDs and videos directly to customers by leaving out the "unnecessary" bookstore and salesperson. The popularity of online stock trading has typical brokers scrambling to survive. Online travel agencies like Travelocity.com and Expedia.com are forcing huge changes in the travel industry.
11 See, www.nolopress.com.
12 See, www.lectlaw.com.
13 The Complete Internet Handbook for Lawyers, by Jerry Lawson at page 302.
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